Updated 17th April 2020

The data indicate that an average of 13 days is being taken by a case from the date of detection to reach to the end-point (either recovery or death). Thus the projection for the number of cumulative and new cases on (date – 13 days) should be nearly the same as the cumulative and new (recoveries + deaths) on any date. This gives the following chart.

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The trend indicates that the rate of increase in the cases is decreasing (deceleration is occurring). At one time, 15 - 20% new cases were occurring over the previous day. This has come down to 9% and may come down to 6% by the end of April 2020 because of the continued lockdown and possibly som effect of rise in temperature. An unusual occurrence such as Tablighi can distort all the projections.

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The projection of the current trend indicates that India may have a cumulative of nearly 35000 cases by the end of April 2020, 10000 recoveries and 2500 deaths. The epidemic may relent in May due to continued deceleration and the effect of high temperature.